Where is Diogenes when we need him?

Seeking unbiased climate change projections

Scientific reports, political manifestos, scientific reports with political origins, science news on entertainment TV, lively debates unfettered by facts.

It’s hard to tell what to believe. Yet if climate change is real, it could have huge consequences for my family, our coastal community, and our region’s fragile economy.

The way I figure it, I need to find someone with so much at stake that they have to get it right. Someone to whom an accurate prediction is worth, say, billions.

How about one of the largest insurance companies in the world? Munich Reinsurance has issued direct and reinsurance policies (backstopping other insurers) amounting to hundreds of billions. Here’s what they reported recently.

“Altogether, a total of 950 natural catastrophes were recorded last year, 90% of which were weather-related events like storms and floods. This total makes 2010 the year with the second-highest number of natural catastrophes since 1980, markedly exceeding the annual average for the last ten years.”

And the world was lucky.

“The US coast was not hit by a single hurricane. But what appeared benign was, in terms of the number and intensity of the storms, one of the severest hurricane seasons of the past 100 years.”

“Many places, including Moscow, experienced record temperatures. In some regions, they exceeded 86°F for two months on end. Forests burned, with the fires threatening nuclear facilities. At least 56,000 people died as a result of heat and air pollution.”

“The high number of weather-related natural catastrophes and record temperatures both globally and in different regions of the world provide further indications of advancing climate change.”

So, is Munich Re the sort of unbiased organization I’m seeking? It’s hard to tell. They could be looking to justify raising premiums. And even if they’re not, weather damage is apparently not a good leading indicator of climate change, according to a recent study.

So my quest for an unbiased prediction goes on. Any suggestions?