The polar bears may be losing habitat.
But it’s the tropics that will be in trouble sooner.

The big impacts of global warming will arrive much earlier in the tropics. So says a new study from scientists at the University of Hawaii.

ClimateDeparture-tropics

 

 

 

 

 

 

Take a look at the dates on this map. They estimate “Climate departure,” when the average temperature of a city moves above the upper limit of its 1860-2005 maximums. The first city predicted to become hotter than its worst heat waves in the past is Kingston, Jamaica. Other major cities follow quickly.

The news that, despite images of polar bears drowning, climate will actually change faster in the tropics than the poles is not good. That’s where between 1 and 5 billion people will experience extreme climates before 2050. Think about the potential

effects on the world’s food supply,
pressures on the areas’ water supplies,
spread of infectious diseases,
heat stress,
conflicts over resources, and
resentment against countries at more temperate latitudes.

The study (based on 39 models developed independently by 21 climate centers in 12 different countries) highlights all this.

“Our results suggest that countries first impacted by unprecedented climates are the ones with the least capacity to respond,” coauthor Ryan Longman tells us. “Ironically, these are the countries that are least responsible for climate change in the first place.“

The Somalis and Libyans and Pakistanis don’t much like Americans now. Think how they and their neighbors may feel by 2040. And imagine the potential impact on the American family budget from food imports, and the taxes need for security costs, humanitarian aid, and other adaptations.